Predicting the 2024 US Presidential Election: Who Has the Best Chance of Moving Into the White House?

In recent months, the 2024 US presidential election has become one of the most unpredictable in history, sparking intense political discourse on social media. Do the candidates’ social media metrics point to a clear favorite in the race for the US presidency?

In this article, we will analyze which of the two candidates has the greatest chance of winning the election according to social media metrics. We will compare the interaction rate and follower growth of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter/X between August and October 2024, and from that, predict the next President of the United States.

Neither Harris nor Trump Can Activate Voters on Social Media

The metric best suited to predict the election result in the United States is engagement rate. The number of likes, comments, and shares per follower that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump can generate can be seen as a direct indicator of the candidates’ ability to activate voters. Before the last presidential election, Joe Biden’s high post-interaction was a strong indication of his victory: Biden was able to increase his interaction rate much more than Trump in the course of his 2020 election campaign.

Neither Harris nor Trump has been able to establish themselves unequivocally on the two largest social networks, Facebook and Instagram. Compared to profiles of a similar size, both have an above-average interaction rate, but it is noticeable that user interactions on both sides tend to decrease the closer it gets to election day.

At the beginning of her campaign, Harris had a slight lead over Trump on the Meta-platforms, but user engagement with her posts has also been steadily declining since mid-September, and she is now neck and neck with Trump.

On TikTok, we see the opposite. Donald Trump was able to generate a particularly high number of likes, comments, and shares on the video-sharing platform at the beginning of August, but this trend did not last for him either. The interaction rate for both candidates on TikTok stabilized at around 5% at the end of the study period.

On Twitter/X, Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris with an average interaction rate of 0.24% compared to 0.20%. Although the Democrat generated more likes, comments, and shares than Trump on the microblogging platform between the end of August and the beginning of September, she was unable to maintain the high level of user interaction. By the end of the study period, she had fallen back to the Republican’s levels.

In terms of voter mobilization on social media, it is impossible to identify a clear favorite in the race for the presidency in this election campaign. Neither Harris nor Trump was able to significantly increase their engagement. In fact, user interaction by both candidates has tended to decline over the last few months.

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No Clear Favorite Emerges in Terms of Follower Growth

The growth of social media profiles can also be seen as an indication of an election victory. It can be assumed that a higher increase in followers also means more new voters for the individual candidates. The weekly growth shows the percentage of followers gained or lost by the two presidential candidates on the platforms Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Twitter/X.

US Elections on social media: There is no clear favorite in terms of follower growth

Both candidates entered the race with different follower bases. At the beginning of her campaign, Kamala Harris had almost 46.7 million followers on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter/X combined, while Donald Trump boasted more than 158.3 million followers. Since announcing her candidacy, Harris has increased her follower count by more than 4 million, resulting in a relative follower gain of +9.98%. Meanwhile, her opponent’s follower base grew by 6.6 million (+4.31%).

Much of Trump’s success can be attributed to his rapid growth on Twitter/X, where he was able to generate nearly 1.7 million new followers in a single week, right after his interview with Elon Musk was released. It is impossible to say to what extent Musk influenced the platform in Trump’s favor, how many of these followers are real, or whether they are bots. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, outpaced her opponent on the Meta-owned platforms Instagram and Facebook, where she gained more than three times as many new followers as Trump.

Although she still has a smaller number of followers overall, the Democrat was able to increase her follower count more strongly in relative terms during her campaign. She has also achieved far higher relative peak values of new followers than Trump over the course of the individual weeks.This means that Kamala Harris’ relative follower growth is more than twice as large as that of Donald Trump. By way of comparison, the winner of the last presidential election, Joe Biden, saw a relative follower increase in 2020 that was four times higher than Trump’s.

Conclusion: It’s Going To Be Close – and Every Vote Counts

Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump are able to effectively activate their voters on social media to make a prediction based on the interaction rate. Comparing the current values with those from the last election campaign shows that no prediction can be made about the election victory based on post interactions. While President Biden was able to significantly increase his interaction during his 2020 election campaign, engagement with this year’s two candidates is actually decreasing over time.

Based on absolute follower growth, Donald Trump is the clear winner of the social media election campaign. However, when looking at the percentage increase, Harris comes out stronger since she increased her following by almost 10%, more than twice as much as her competitor (4.31%). It remains to be seen how these numbers affect the election victory on November 5. One thing is for sure: the election outcome will be close, and every single vote will count.

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